North East Thatcham: How Many Homes Actually Fit?

One of the most important questions about the North East Thatcham development is whether 2,500 homes can realistically be delivered alongside the promised 50% green space, two primary schools, a secondary school and three local centres. I’ve done some analysis using publicly available data and measurements of existing Thatcham developments. Here’s what I found.

How I measured it

I drew polygons around existing residential developments in Thatcham using mapping tools and counted the addresses within each one using the OS Open UPRN dataset.

Polygons were hand-drawn based on maps made available in planning documents and the developer’s website. As a result, they are not 100% accurate. I would estimate they fall within +/-10% error bounds.

All code used can be found here. If you believe any of the figures presented here are incorrect, I encourage you to validate the code and report any issues.

Address data: OS Open UPRN © Crown copyright and database rights 2025 Ordnance Survey. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

Density of existing Thatcham developments

Looking at some existing developments in Thatcham, we can derive the following figures. We use Dwellings per Hectare (DPH) as the measure - the number of dwellings per 10,000m² area.

Average across all developments: 27.4 DPH

A few things stand out. Sowerby Street, built by Bloor Homes in 2019, is the lowest density at 22.7 DPH - generous plots, and worth noting that the polygon I used does not include the significant green space around the development. Kennet Heath is by far the highest at 41.2 DPH - the former military supply depot site, with a noticeably denser, more urban character and 39% social housing. The rest of the town sits in a fairly consistent band of 24-30 DPH.

What national policy requires

The Inspector’s Main Modifications to the adopted West Berkshire Local Plan (November 2024) introduced a minimum net density requirement for Thatcham:

“Within Newbury, Thatcham, Tilehurst, Purley on Thames, and Calcot, developments are expected to secure a net density of at least 35 dwellings per hectare, with densities of at least 70 dwellings per hectare in town centres and for flatted developments along main transport routes and close to transport nodes.”

Source: West Berkshire Local Plan Main Modifications, November 2024

35 DPH is noticeably higher than the existing Thatcham average of 27.4 DPH - and higher than every development in the town except Kennet Heath. This is a deliberate policy choice by the Inspector to drive more efficient use of land.

How much land is actually available for housing at NE Thatcham?

To work out how many homes can fit, I estimated the net developable area by subtracting the committed non-housing uses from the total site area. I estimated the size of local centres and schools by averaging measured areas in Thatcham today, see the map above. Note again that figures are approximate but likely within a 10% error bound.

A key point to make here is that many who have submitted feedback on the project have asked for additional provisions for local employment, to prevent the development becoming a dormitory for commuters. This would likely increase the space required for local centres and thus impact space available for housing. I have not looked further into this here, but it is worth bearing in mind.

The critical finding

Applying the 35 DPH policy minimum to the 716,069 m² available for housing gives a maximum of approximately 2,507 homes - almost exactly 2,500.

The 2,500 figure is not a coincidence. It is the mathematical output of applying the Inspector’s own 35 DPH minimum to the net developable area of the site. The Inspector set both the density floor and the headline dwelling count in the same examination process.

This means the 2,500 figure is essentially the maximum achievable at the policy minimum density, once all the committed non-housing uses are accounted for. There is no headroom.

The risk: higher density frees up space for even more homes

40% of the development (approximately 1,000 homes) will be affordable housing, typically delivered by registered providers in flatted or terrace typologies at higher densities. If the affordable component is built at 70 DPH (the Local Plan minimum for flatted development near transport nodes) rather than 35 DPH, it occupies roughly half the land it would otherwise need.

Without a binding cap on total dwellings, a developer could use that freed-up land to deliver additional homes well above 2,500 - meeting the 35 DPH minimum across the site and unrestricted by any maximum density figure.

This is why the SPD must do two things simultaneously:

1. Fix the green infrastructure as an absolute minimum area in hectares, not as “approximately 50%”, secured in perpetuity before any other land uses are allocated.
2. Set a binding maximum of 2,500 dwellings across the whole site.

Without both, higher-density affordable housing becomes a mechanism for exceeding the headline target rather than protecting green space.

The good news

If 40% of the development were to be delivered at a higher density, with small flat blocks or maisonettes around local centres, the target density of 35 DPH is achievable, even with strict restrictions placed on green space and preservation of trees and wildlife habitats. I believe this makes the addition of strict, binding SPD requirements very reasonable and achievable.

Projects such as Goldsmith Street in Norwich and Marmalade Lane in Cambridge have shown that higher density housing can be delivered in a way which preserves green space and creates liveable and pleasant neighbourhoods. Though the required density of 35 DPH will make North East Thatcham one of the most densely populated areas of the town, the SPD can and should ensure this is done in a way which limits environmental impact and delivers something attractive and pleasant for residents.

A carefully planned development which mixes a variety of densities on the site with ample green space is without doubt preferable to a sprawl of homogeneous detached houses, designed simply to maximise revenue and fill up the space.

What this means for the SPD

The analysis suggests the masterplan SPD should:

• Define green infrastructure in absolute hectare terms, not as a percentage
• Exclude private gardens, school playing fields and non-publicly accessible land from the green infrastructure calculation
• Set a binding maximum of 2,500 dwellings across all phases
• Require a minimum proportion of higher-density typologies (flatted and terrace) specifically for the affordable housing component, located near the local centres and transport connections
• Require the design code to ensure tenure-blind quality, so that higher-density affordable blocks meet the same landscape and public realm standards as market housing

Done well, a mix of typologies could deliver 2,500 good homes, genuine green space and a functioning local centre. Done badly, it could produce pockets of Kennet Heath-style density surrounded by generous market housing, with green space commitments quietly eroded phase by phase.

Disclaimer: I’m just a resident working with open data and documentation. All views are my own. I have no planning expertise and no particular standing… but I do live here, I walk that site regularly, and I’d like Thatcham to be a better place in thirty years than it is today.

If you have questions or want to share what you’ve submitted, feel free to get in touch: dan.taylor.thatcham@proton.me